. . , ：

,
. 30, 2012
45
629.113.004
. .
,
,
-
.
,
,
,
.
,
:
,
.
. .
,
：
,
-
.
,
,
,
.
,
:
,
.
MAINTENANCE EXPENSES PREDICTION OF TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
V. Vlasenko, postgraduate, KhNA U
Abstract. To predict maintenance expenses of transportation facilities it is necessary to consider conditions of its operation and age as well as drivers proficiency.
Key words: transportation facility, prediction, maintenance expenses.
(
)
(
)
:
(
)
-
-
,
.
[1].
-
,
,
.
5–8
,
–
-
c
.
10–15
[2].
,
.
-
-
,
[1]
/ 
,
,
,
46
100  CEO ( N 1C 1



q    lCC
l
 
N 2
2 )


,
l
103 
. 30, 2012

NTO-1, NTO-2 –
-1
-2,
; CEO,
CTO-1, CTO-2 –
,
-1
-2,
;l –
, ;
–
1000
,
/1000
–
,
; lCC –
, .
(1)
(
[4].
,
;
.
-1 NTO-1,
-2 NTO-2
[5]
(1)
N TO-2 
100
C 
q 
,
l
l
, N TO1 
2
N TO 
–
NTO
,
.
1 , l
l
2
 N TO2 ,
1
,
l
–
l
-2,
l
l
l
,
-1,
(
[6]).
(1)
C l
 EO   NTO1  CTO1  NTO2  CTO2  
lCC
K  103

-1,
l .
l
,
-1,
-2
-
-2
2
 nTO  l
1 ,
nTO –
1000
-2
-
-
-1, nTO 
[3].
l
l
2
.
1
-2
-1
,
-1 NTO-1
-
,
–
-2 NTO-2
N TO2  l / ( nTO  l
;
N TO1  (1  nTO ) l / l
.
1 ),
(2)
1.
-
,
,
(
),
.
-
,
–
–
.
,
-
,
-
–
.
,
-1,
. 30, 2012
-2,
(2),
-1
-2 (
47
–
.- [6];
,
t
-
,
)
–
,
[5]; l –
[5]).
(
-1,
(3)
.- ,

1 
1 
 l  1
nTO 

N TO1 
l 1  i  
T -1,
,
t
-2,
-2
-1,
,
N
-2,
-1,
. (7)
-2,
-
N TO2
:
1
l  1
nTO

l 1  i  
N TO 
–
,

l  1

l
,
i

-1
-2
-2

-1 ,
.- ;
–
.


(3)


,
.- .
,
(5), (6)
 T 
l  lCC 
P
–
,
(4)
,
(
;
P
,
.;  –
1000
i

.- /1000
-
m
P
1

n
  (
ij
j 1 i 1
i =1, 2, …, n –
)
; j =1, 2…,
.
-1
27.002-89),
).
-
-2 (
),
.- ,
m –
,
,
N
N

2 
,

2
N
j1 i1
ij

ij 2 
-1,
(9)
1 
 103
 (N
1  N
,
,
(8),
m n
,
ij
, (5)
-
(
(

:
H
tTP
–
,
[6]).
.- .
,
-
 T 
,
,
(
H
tTP
 lCC 

,
)
–
.
27.002-89),


,
,
(
.-
(7)
1

(8)
;
N
2
1ij

(9)
103
-2,
),
ij
–
,

t

l
l
-1,
[3];
,
.- ,
(6)
-2,
[3];
1000
,
[3].
,
48
,
.
. 30, 2012
-2
10–15 %,
-1 –
10–12 %,
– 15–20 %;
–
40–50 %,
-2 – 12–18 %,
-1 – 10–15 %,
– 25–30 %.
70–75 %
-
.
,
,
.
:
–
-
.
,
 [(
(1  102



)(1  )] 
,
-
);
,
,
,
.
m
,
n
 {[(
(1  )](1  102

ij
j 1 i 1

ij

)
1.
)},
–
, % (
01.04.2011 – 37,66 %).
,
,
-
. .
. . .
. – .:
:

,

3.
;
,
-
, . .
, 1998. – 468 .
2.
–
,
. .
(
) / . .
. – .:
/ . .
. .
.;
. – 3.,
, 1991. – 416 .
.
. .
/
–
,
:
,
. .
– .:
.
, . .
, 2004. – 155 .
4.

,
,

,
. –
.:
.
,
,
,
.
,
.
–
,
,
-
,
, 1989. – 298 .
. .
5.
.
,
:
. – 2-
/ . .
.,
.
. –
, 1993. – 272 .
.:
6.
-
–
/
,
. – .: 1998. – 16 .
.
–
-
,
:
. .
,
, . . .,
.
.
[2] 55–65 %,
19
2012 .