английском

The Research of Humanitarian Aid
Needs in Regions of Donetsk and
Lugansk
Decemder 2014
Methodology
 The research was conducted during December 2-16, 2014 on demand of
the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center and “Dopomozhemo TV“.
Quantitative
component
Qualitative
component
Telephone public inquiry
in 131/26-27
communities
Analytical notes
26 communities
Local citizens
Doctors, pharmacist, taxi
drivers, shop assistants,
media, social networks,
locals
2
Quantitative Component
 The project estimated the humanitarian aid needs of community
residents in both the Region of Donetsk and the Region of Lugansk.
Inquiries were held by Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
applying the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing method (CATI).
Respondents at the age over 18 were inquired.
 Sample size: 2101 respondents from 26 most needing communities were
inquired in December (It was not possible to hold the inquiry in
Pervomaysk due to telephone communications failure).
 According to the September inquiry results communities were classified,
joining under one class if having similar aid needs structure (hierarchical
cluster analysis method applied). Such an analysis made it possible to
distinguish a group of communities, the residents of which are in the
most aid need, and focus the further needs research on those particularly.
 In the inquiries, held from October to December, the current resident
needs in foodstuff, medical supplies and non-grocery goods were
investigated, as well as the work of medical and educational facilities,
communications status.
3
Qualitative Component
 Analytical notes on each of the communities were prepared basing on combination
of several data collection methods, applied in Sociology:
 Ethnomethodology method – a behaviour research through empirical observation
of daily routines. Local residents are considered to be experts, competent in their
everyday experiences.
 Participant observation method – informal collection of research-relevant data,
conducted by the researcher himself (mostly notes authors were located in their
research communities or quickly conveyed the information to Kyiv).
 Expert interview – obtaining a unique expert information from the professionals
in research-relevant areas – medicine (doctors, apothecary pharmacist),
transportation (operators), humanitarian aid (government and Territorial Social
Services Centres employees).
 Key informant method – obtaining a unique information from those possessing the
knowledge of current situation (taxi drivers, shop assistants and market
salesmen) + information from local media.
 Social networks monitoring – obtaining a unique information from the on-line
content, generated by residents in communities of social network VKontakte.
4
Inquiry Geography
5
Main Results
Real-life Situation Estimation
In the past month the number of people, estimating the situation as unbearable (“not
possible to bear our misery”), has increased by 7%
Which of the statements is most relevant to current
situation?
54
Ноябрь
November
48
December
Декабрь
43
36
6
5
Все
плохо
и можно
ЖитьLife
трудно,
ноbut
можно
Терпетьtoнаше
Not possible
bear our
Notне
soтак
bad,
you can
live
is hard,
жить
терпеть
бедственное
положение
misery
on
bearable
уже невозможно
5
4
Затрудняюсь
Hard toответить
tell
7
Situation Changes in the Community
The negative estimation fall of situation changes in the community has stopped, still there
is no improvement present. More than a half of the respondents consider the situation
still permanently bad in December.
How has the situation in you community changed over the past week?
3%
8%
35%
9%
32%
3%
сентябрь
September
4%
3%
октябрь
October
16%
21%
15%
3%
16%
1%
ноябрь
November
7%
18%
декабрь
December
25%
Немного
Slightly улучшилось
better
Значительно
Significantlyулучшилось
better
Немного
Slightly ухудшилось
worse
Значительно
Significantlyухудшилось
worse
25%
8
The Main Problems of Community
Security(1)
The Problems
% of references
Shooting, bombing in the community
69
High crime level
11
People disappearances
6
Governmental abuse of power
4
Drug addiction
3
Persecutions on ethnic or language
grounds
Threats against women
1
0.3
Threats against children
0.1
Other
1
There is no problems in Security
11
Hard to tell
14
53% of
respondents claim,
that there are
military actions
held on their
community
territory. More than
2/3 of residents
consider shooting
and bombing main
security problem.
9
The Main Problems of Community
Security(2)
qualitative component
Afraid of artillery attack.
In general, crime statistics does not exceed the pre-war level.
Violence against residents.
Fraud practices – money extortion from relatives of someone “in
trouble”.
 Cases of looting and burglaries on the part of the kasaks in
Pervomaysk, crime occurrence very frequent.
 Cases of burglary, looting, abuse, violence on the part of residents
in Sverdlovsk – they are doing that out of despair as the locals say.
 Afraid of armed men in uniform under the influence of alcohol in
the communities and on the roads.





10
Basic Needs
% of population lacking...
ноябрь
November
декабрь
December
58
45
45
38
34
24
Householdтоваров
goods
бытовых
Medical supplies
медикаментов
Food
продуктов
At average, the level of needs in household goods,
medical supplies and foodstuff increased by 8%.
11
Foodstuff Needs
Which of the food products are in the shortest supply in Your
community?
крупы
cereals
мясные
и рыбные
tinned
meatконсервы
and fish
растительное
масло
vegetable
oil
свежее
мясо
fresh meat
сахар
sugar
сливочноеbutter
масло
молочные
концентраты
milk concentrates
flour
мука
macaroni products
макаронные
изделия
diary products
свежиеfresh
молочные
продукты
fish
рыба
rootкорнеплоды
vegetable
potatoes
картофель
bread
хлеб
freshфрукты
fruits
свежие
confectionary
кондитерские
изделия
baby
food
детское
питание
fresh water
питьевая
вода
other
другое
29
26
24
18
16
13
13
12
% of community residents
11
10
9
6
5
4
4
3
1
1
1
12
Medical Supplies Needs
Which of the medicaments are in the shortest supply in your
community?
Сердечные
Cardiac
39
Препараты
от давления
For blood
pressure
26
Успокоительные
Antianxiety
20
Противовоспалительные
Anti-inflammatory
9
Антивирусные препараты
Aniviral
9
Жаропонижающие
Antipyretic
9
Противокашлевые
Antitussic
7
Инсулин
Insulin
7
Антибиотики
Antiniotics
Витамины
Vitamins
Противоаллергенные
Antiallergic…
Другое
Other
% of community residents
6
2
2
18
13
Household Goods Needs
Which of the hygiene products and household goods are in the
shortest supply in Your community?
Моющие
стиральные
средства
Washingиand
cleaning products
32
Мыло,
шампунь
Soap, shampoo
30
Зубная
паста
Toothpaste
19
Napkins,
toilet бумага
paper
Салфетки,
туалетная
10
Diapers,
sanitary
napkin
Подгузники,
прокладки
5
Candles,
matches
Свечи,
спички
2
Underwear,
Нательное
белье, socks
носки
1
Warn clothes
Теплая
одежда
1
Heater
Обогреватели
0
Blanket
Одеяло
0
Other
Другое
% of community residents
1
14
Communities Humanitarian Needs
Объем
выборки
Sample size
Zuevka
47
Novotoshkovskoe
47
Зуевка
47
Потребность
Потребность
в
Medical Supplies
в продуктах
Foodstuff Needs медикаментах
Needs
питания
61,7%
70,2%
70.2%
61.7%
76,6%
61,7%
Потребность в
Hygiene Products
предметах
Needs
гигиены
57,4%
57.4%
55,3%
Всего (есть
хоть одна
All (at least one need)
потребность)
83,0%
83.0%
83,0%
47
47
76.6%
61.7%
55.3%
83.0%
47
46
66.0%
72.3%
44.7%
80.9%
46
32
63.0%
69.6%
54.3%
80.4%
59.4%
65.6%
56.3%
78.1%
Krasnodon
32
45
Kirovskoe
Краснодон
45
47
51.1%
63,8%
71.1%
63,8%
26.7%
59,6%
77.8%
76,6%
Кировское
47
47
63.8%
48,9%
63.8%
55,3%
59.6%
42,6%
76.6%
76,6%
Stakhanov
Харцизск
47
92
48.9%
59,8%
55.3%
63,0%
42.6%
53,3%
76.6%
76,1%
Горловка
Gorlovka
153
153
60.1%
60,1%
62.7%
62,7%
47.7%
47,7%
75.8%
75,8%
Дебальцево
Debaltseve
47
47
66.0%
66,0%
66.0%
66,0%
29.8%
29,8%
74.5%
74,5%
Зугрес
Zugres
31
31
51.6%
51,6%
67.7%
67,7%
38.7%
38,7%
74.2%
74,2%
Енакиево
Yenakievo
92
92
59.8%
59,8%
63.0%
63,0%
43.5%
43,5%
73.9%
73,9%
Снежное
Snizhne
47
47
53.2%
53,2%
57.4%
57,4%
31.9%
31,9%
72.3%
72,3%
Макеевка
Makeevka
203
203
52,7%
52.7%
58,6%
58.6%
41,9%
41.9%
70,9%
70.9%
Илловайск
Ilovaisk
47
47
51,1%
51.1%
57,4%
57.4%
46,8%
46.8%
70,2%
70.2%
Стаханов
92
30
46.7%
46,7%
63.3%
63,3%
40.0%
40,0%
70.0%
70,0%
47
42.6%
66.0%
34.0%
68.1%
46
47.8%
45
48.9%
300
33.0%
47
51.1%
61.7%
40.4%
66.0%
Луганск
300
300
38.7%
58.7%
29.0%
65.7%
Алчевск
93
93
48.4%
54.8%
30.1%
64.5%
30
91
42.9%
52.7%
25.3%
58.2%
32
32
21.9%
46.9%
18.8%
56.3%
Новотошковское
Yasinovataya
Ясиноватая
Yunokomunarovsk
Юнокоммунаровск
Komsomolskoe
Комсомольское
Khartsyzk
Stanytsa Luganskaya
Джержинский
Dzerzhynsk
47
Avdiivka
46
Shakhtarsk
45
Авдеевка
Шахтерск
Донецк
Donetsk
Докучаевск
Dokuchaevsk
Lugansk
Alchevsk
Станица Луганская
Sverdlovsk
Светлодарск
Svetlodarsk
300
47
66,0%
63,0%
59,4%
51,1%
42,6%
47,8%
48,9%
33,0%
51,1%
38,7%
48,4%
42,9%
21,9%
72,3%
69,6%
65,6%
71,1%
66,0%
60.9%
60,9%
60.0%
60,0%
53.3%
53,3%
61,7%
58,7%
54,8%
52,7%
46,9%
44,7%
54,3%
56,3%
26,7%
34,0%
28.3%
28,3%
40.0%
40,0%
36.3%
36,3%
40,4%
29,0%
30,1%
25,3%
18,8%
80,9%
80,4%
78,1%
77,8%
68,1%
67.4%
67,4%
66.7%
66,7%
66.3%
66,3%
66,0%
65,7%
64,5%
58,2%
56,3%
Top-5 Most Needing Communities
Komsomolsk
Yasinovataya
Zuevka
All (at least one need)
Kommunarovsk
Novotoshkovskoe
Komsomolsk
Hygiene Products Needs
Zuevka
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Kirovskoe
Zugres
Kommunarovsk
Zuevka
Krasnodon
Yasinovataya
Yunkommunarovsk
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Medical Supplies Needs
Novotoshkovskoe
There is only one
community,
permanently listed in
the top of lacking in
all of the supply
categories in
December – that is
Yunokomunarovsk
Kirovskoe
Yasinovataya
Debaltsevo
Novotoshkovskoe
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Yunkommunarovsk
Foodstuff Needs
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Awareness of Rinat Akhmetov
Humanitarian Centre Activities
Do You know, that at the moment Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian
Centre is providing humanitarian aid to the population of Donbas
Да - 67%
Yes
No - 32%
Нет
Hard
to tell – 1%
Затрудняюсь
ответить- 1%
17
Financial Situation
qualitative component
 The employees of the following areas get the salaries: trade, goods
and passengers transportation, cash payment services. Miners and
large industrial enterprises workers – partially.
 Accumulated previously funds and money, sent by relatives, are used.
 Attending territories under control of Ukraine for pension
registrations, or withdrawal money from from ATMs.
 There is Oschadbank working in Stanitsa Luganskaya, the queues are
long.
 Payments on the territories under control of Ukrainian government
are carried out.
18
Migration Rates
32%
27%
23%
октябрь
October
ноябрь
November
декабрь
December
Note: December data are given without Pervomaysk, where migration rates in
November exceeded 50%.
Migration Plans
Would you like to move from your community to the territory
out of Donbas?
No
Нет
82%
Yes,хотел
I wouldбы,
likeно
to,не
Да,
but I can’t
могу
15%
Yes,планирую
I’m going to
Да,
leave until
summer
уехать
до лета
1%
Yes, I’m going to leave,
Да, планирую, но
but
неdon’t
знаюknow
когдаwhen
Hard toсказать
tell
Трудно
1%
1%
20
The Work of Community Services,
Medical and Educational Facilities
Централизованное
газоснабжение
Central
gas supply 1
Электричество
Electricity
supply
94
0
83
Больницы
Hospitals
8
Городской
Public транспорт
transport
8
73
Междугородний транспорт
25
Inter-city transport
Школы
Schools
Затруднились
Hard to tell ответить
13
76
3
55
14
Работает
обычном режиме
Works asв usual
66
Иногда
не работает
Sometimes
works
1
8 1
77
Water supply
Аптеки
16
83
Водоснабжение 0
Apothecaries
31
Часто
не работает
Often doesn’t
work
21
21
31
21
21
14
41
11
3 6
Вообще не работает
Doesn’t work at all
21
Heating Availability (1)
 79% of respondents are in possession of central
heating and it is functional. Only among 1% of
respondents central heating is non-functional. Every
fifth family is not in possession of central heating, using
the individual one.
 ¾ of individual heating consumers use gas, 13% –
electricity, 12% – coal. Other kinds of heating are not
spread.
 3% of respondent families expressed their need in fuel
(coal, wood, diesel fuel, pellets etc.). Mostly, that was
the private sector residents of the communities like
Zuevka, Krasnodon, Debaltsevo, Kirovskoe,
Komsomolskoe.
22
Heating Availability (2)
qualitative component
 In most of the flats and government institutions the heating is
functional, though sometimes not sufficient, forcing the use of
electric heaters.
 In residential blocks areas the critical need in fuel is not present.
 The need in fuel is present among the private sector residents,
especially in small communities: urban-type settlement
Dzerzhynsk, urban-type settlement Novotoshkivske, Stanitsa
Luganskaya, Pervomaysk, Stakhanov (no CH, only individual),
Avdiivka, Gorlovka, Debaltseve, Dokuchaevsk, Yenakievo, Ilovaysk,
Snizhne, Yasinovataya.
 There is no central heating at all in Stanitsa Luganskaya (system
defrosting).
 Unsufficient heating in schools and kindergardens in Debaltseve,
Dokuchaevsk, Kirovskoe, Yasinovataya.
23
Stressful Situations across the Year
Stressful situations
% of references
Experience bombing, shooting
80
Feeling helpless
57
Turn out to be without means of living
47
Experiencing severe illness of relatives
24
Experiencing severe illness, surgery
22
Loss of one's work, becoming forcedly unemployed
21
Loss of one's self-belief
20
Loss of belief in mankind, encounter with meanness
16
Experiencing death of relatives
12
Serious conflicts with others
5
Exposure to threats, intimidation
3
Being a victim of abuse or robbery
2
Being a victim of theft or fraud practices
2
Living in close to suicide state
1
Experiencing other stressful situations
47
There was no stressful situations
56
24
Mutual Aid (1)
When You were getting into trouble
and someone was able to help You, –
how often have you been helped?
Over the past six months almost
60% of respondent families
cooperated with other community
residents to help each other coping
with problems.
Ukraine
Украина
Донбасс
Donbas
31
29
27
20
19
19 19
14
9
In most cases, it was foodstuff and
clothing aid (54%), psychological
support (27%), help in everyday
matters (buying groceries,
transportation, tidying up etc.) –
14%.
3% of respondents used to help with
money.
5
Never
Никогда
Редко
Rarely
Время
от
Sometimes
времени
Часто
Often
Всегда
Always
Note:
National-wide data were gathered during KIIS Omnibus Research
(Autumn 2014)
25
Mutual Aid (2) qualitative component
 Clothing and foodstuff exchange (collecting centres, communities
in social networks, newspaper announcements).
 Collecting aids for other communities.
 Neighbourhood and relatives help, first of all psychological and
then material.
 Free meals (church, private cafeterias, enterprises canteens).
 Company initiatives (Metinvest Group Avdiivka Coke Plant,
Yenakievo Bread-Baking Plant).
 In-home selling.
26
2015 Predictions
Will the year 2015 be
better or worse, than
the year 2014? 46%
Although the current situation is distressful, half of the
Donbass residents consider the year 2015 to be better,
than the outgoing one, bringing them peace and
improvement of economic situation.
2015 for Donbass will
be...
14%
52%
Хуже
Worse
Лучше
Better
In 2015 the economic
situation in Donbass ...
10%
47%
Less peaceful
Менее
мирным
More
peaceful
Более
мирным
26%
Никакого
улучшения
There will
be no
неimprovement
произойдет
Более
или менее
Will improve
more
наладится
or less
27
Peace and Recovery Expectations
The economy will improve
50.0%
In the upper right corner
(Group I) there are
communities, in which
more than 50% of
residents consider 2015
to be the year of peace
and economy
improvement. In the
lower right corner (Group
II) there are communities,
in which the residents
hope for peace without
economy improvement.
And in the lower left
corner (Group III) there
are communities, in
which the residents see
the perspectives of peace
and improvement with a
great deal of pessimism.
Lugansk
Dzepzhynskyi
Sverdlovsk
Ilovaysk
Makeevka
Stakhanov
Zugres
Shakhtarsk
Krasnodon
Alchevsk
Donetsk
Yunokomunarovsk
Khartsyz
Novotoshkivske
Gorlovka Zuevka
Stanitsa Luganskaya
Kirovskoe
Snizhne
Sletlodarsk
II group
Yasinovataya
Komsomolskoe
Avdiivka
Dokuchaevsk
Yenakievo
Debaltsevo
III group
There will be peace
0.0%
0.0%
50.0%
28
When will the conflict in Donbuss be
over?
What do You think, when the conflict in Donbuss will be over?
It will happen in...
Нескольких
Couple ofмесяцев
months
18%
Следующего
Nextгода
year
22%
Через 2-3
2-3 years
года
Через4-5
4-5years
лет
Затянется
лет
Will last боле
more,чем
thenна5 5years
Никогда
Never
Не знаю
I don’t
know
40% of respondents
think, that the conflict
will be over within a
year
9%
3%
3%
2%
44%
29
Long-term Perspective
How will the situation in Donbuss change over the next 10 years?
It is doubtful, that
Donbas will be able
to recover from the
military conflict and
will be a region with
low life level 11%
Hard to tell
34%
One way or
another, Donbas
will cope with all its
problems and
become a region
with the same life
level, as in other
regions of Ukraine
34%
After all, Donbas
will become a
region of economic
prosperity
21%
30
Sentiments and Expectations
qualitative component
 In those communities, where active military operations are not
held, the residents expect peace and stability.
 Expect the military actions to be over.
 Expect financial stability.
31
Main Conclusions (1)
 The number of people estimating the current situation as
unbearabke increased over a month from 7% to 43%.
 Most of all the Donbass residents are afraid of artillery
attacks, 53% of respondents claim that there are military
actions held on their community territory.
 At average, the level of needs in household goods,
medical supplies and foodstuff increased by 8%.
 The most difficult supply and general situation is still
present in Stanytsia Luhanska, Pervomaysk, Stakhanov and
uts Novotoshkivske.
 Most of the residents (82%) does not want to leave their
community, 15% more want, but are not able.
32
Main Conclusions (2)
 Besides receiving the humanitarian aid, people cooperate to
help each other – with food, clothing and psychological
support.
 Although the current situation is distressful, half of the
Donbass residents consider the year 2015 to be better, than
the outgoing one, bringing them peace and improvement of
economic situation, and 40% of residents think, that the
conflict will be over within a year.
33
Thank You
for Your attention!
paniotto@kmis.kiev.ua
nkh@kiis.com.ua
d.pyrogova@kiis.com.ua