Десятая ежегодная конференция "Физика плазмы в солнечной
системе“, ИКИ, 16-20 февраля 2015 г.
СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ КВАЗИДВУХЛЕТНИМИ ОСЦИЛЛЯЦИЯМИ
ИНТЕНСИВНОСТИ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ
ЛУЧЕЙ И СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ
Г.А. Базилевская, М.С. Калинин, М.Б.
Крайнев, В.С. Махмутов, А.К. Свиржевская,
Н.С. Свиржевский, Ю.И. Стожков
(ФИАН)
QBO on the Sun
What are QBO?
year solar cycle
T ~ 1-3 years. Amplitudes are modulated by the 11-
Motivation:
The QBOs are recognized as one of the basic variations of solar activity.
• The QBOs appear to be the most prevalent quasi periodicity shorter
than the 11-yr cycle in solar activity phenomena. The majority of the
Sun researchers believe that QBOs are intrinsic to the solar dynamo
mechanism (Benevolenskaya 1998, 2003, 2005; Howe et al. 2000;
Krivova and Solanki 2002; Mursula et al. 2003; Mursula and Vilppola
2004; Cadavid et al.2005; Knaack and Stenflo 2005; Forgács-Dajka and
Borkovits 2007; Obridko and Shelting 2007; Ruzmaikin et al. 2008;
Valdés-Galicia and Velasco 2008; Vecchio and Carbone 2009;Vecchio et
al. 2010, 2012b; Zaqarashvili et al. 2010; Katsavrias et al. 2012;
Laurenza et al.2012; Singh and Gautam Badruddin 2012; D’Alessi et al.
2013; Popova 2013; Popova and Yukhina 2013; Popova and Potemina
2013; Popova et al., 2014; Cho et al. 2014).
Specific features of solar QBO
• The QBOS are ubiquitous: observed from below the photosphere up to
the corona.
• The QBOs in various indices of solar activity related to different levels of
the solar atmosphere are rather coherent.
• But the oscillations in the northern and southern solar hemispheres
develop independently.
• Amplitudes of the solar QBOs are modulated by 11-year cycle.
• The QBOs are highly irregular resembling a set of intermittent
pulses/waves with signatures of stochasticity. Wang and Sheeley (2003)
simulated QBO successfully assuming that active regions emerge at
randomly distributed longitudes, while the periodicity was determined
the decay timescale of the equatorial dipole.
Motivation for study QBO in cosmic rays:
• The solar QBOs are translated into the heliosphere through the
open magnetic flux and they permanently exist in the
heliospheric parameters and cosmic ray modulation.
• Previously the QBOs in cosmic rays were studied by many
authors, among them Hill et al, 2000; Rybak et al., 2001;
Krainev et al., 2002; Kudela et al., 2002, 2010; Kato et al, 2003;
Mavromichalaki et al, 2003; Mursula et al., 2003; Kane, 2005;
Valdes-Galicia and Velasko, 2008; Veccio et al, 2010, 2012;
Okhlopkov, 2011; Laurenza et al., 2012. Most of them focused
on a selected periodicities, such as 2 yr, 1.7yr, 1.3 yr or ~1 yr,
and tried to find correlations with solar activity.
• Our aim is to treat these variations as a special class of CR solar
modulation. In particular, we show that (1) the Gnevyshev gap
effect and the step-like cosmic ray modulation are appearance
of QBO; (2) there is permanent high correlation between the
QBO in cosmic rays and IMF strength.
The 11-year variations and the QBOs in cosmic rays
Black&Red – ballon
Murmansk, Pfotzer
maximum
Green&Blue – Apatity
neutron monitor
The QBOs in cosmic rays are irregular similarly to solar activity.
No apparent difference between A>0 and A<0 magnetic cycles.
Possible definite periodicity: 1.7 years in solar cycles 20-23
~1.7 year periodicity in
QBOs of cosmic rays
and heliospheric
magnetic field (see also
Rybak et al., 2001;
Kudela et al., 2002,
2010; Kato et al, 2003;
Mursula et al., 2003; et
many others).
Power density spectrum
Definite periodisity exists only during limited time interval.
Averaged amplitudes of
11-year variations (7 mon smoothed) and QBO
Dates (end for
11yr variation)
11-year
variation
QBO(till
2012.96)
Ratio QBO/11yr
Sunspot area,
mdp
IMF B, nT
Cosmic rays,
Balloon
Murmansk
%1987.21
1954.3-2008.9
1965-2009.7
1958.5-2009.6
1963.6-2009.6
2570
5.34
38.5
15.8
±337
±0.91
±3.2
±2.1
384
0.95
5.45
2.62
±49
±0.08
±0.37
±0.23
0.15
0.18
0.14
0.17
±0.03
±0.03
±0.02
±0.03
Cosmic rays, NM
Moscow,
%1987.21
R=-0.68±0.02, D=1
300
100
-100
-300
-500
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2020
IMF B, nT
NM Moscow, count rate
500
NM Moscow
HMF B
Year
-100
R=-0.50±0.03, D=1
300
-50
100
0
-100
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
NM Moscow
V
50
-300
-500
1960
V, km/s
NM Moscow, count rate
500
100
2020
Year
-1500
R=-0.72±0.02, D=1
-1000
300
-500
100
0
-100
500
-300
-500
1960
1000
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
1500
2020
B*V
NM Moscow, count rate
500
NM Moscow
B*V
QBOs in different 11-year cycles and in the periods with different
solar magnetic field polarities
Search of any
difference in behavior
of correlation between
QBOs in heliospheric
magnetic field and in
cosmic rays:
• For different 11year cycles of solar
activity – no
difference.
• For periods with
different polarities
of the general solar
magnetic field.
Correlation is remarkably stronger
for the positive magnetic polarity.
Correlation between QBO in CR and HMF, different solar cycles
dates
Cycle
Delay,
R
error
1
-0.74
0.04
months
1967.54
1976.46
fall of 20
1976.54
1986.79
21
2
-0.70
0.05
1986.87
1996.37
22
0
-0.74
0.04
1996.46
2008.87
23
1
-0.66
0.05
2008.96
2012.87
1
-0.74
0.07
rise of 24
Correlation between QBO in CR and HMF, different SMF polarity
dates
A sign
1970.87
1980.12
>0
Delay,
months
1
R
er
-0.79
0.04
1980.04
1990.96
<0
1
-0.67
0.05
1990.87
2000.96
>0
0
-0.79
0.03
2000.87
2012.96
<0
1
-0.70
0.04
«Ступенчатая» модуляция КЛ
100
600
Нейтронный
монитор Москва
500
80
60
40
400
300
Стратосфера,
Мурманская обл.,
выс.~20 км
Число солнечных
пятен
20
100
0
1955
200
0
1965
1975
1985
Год
Эффект Гневышева
1995
2005
2015
Число солнечных пятен
Интенсивность космических
лучей, % of 1965
120
Эффект Гневышева – двухпиковая структура максимума 11-летнего
солнечного цикла. Проявляется во всех индексах солнечной активности, а
также в межпланетной среде, но не стабилен (проявляется не во всех
циклах).
Избранные работы:
Sykora, 1980; Antalova and
Gnevyshev, 1983;
Storini, 1997; Feminella
abd Storini, 1997;
Bazilevskaya et al., 2000;
Storini et al., 2003, Storini
and Laurenza, 2003; Kane,
2002, 2005, 2006; Norton
and Gallagher, 2010;
Lukianova and Mursula,
2011; Kilcik and Ozguk,
2014; etc.
Гневышев М.Н., 1963, Астрономический
журнал, № 7, с. 311-318.
Gnevyshev, M. N. 1967, Solar Phys. 1, 107.
Step-like structure of galactic CR modulation
Burlaga et al., 1993: result of CR modulation by the global
interaction regions (GMIR) of HMF which were formed by coronal
mass ejections (CME), shocks and fast-speed flow of solar wind at
distance of ~10 a.u
Cane et al., 1999: the step-like events in CR are simultaneous with
the solar magnetic field variations derived from photospheric
observations alone.
Wibberenz and Cane, 2000: the “medium-term modulation events”
related to variations in the open magnetic flux carried by solar wind.
Such events are distributed throughout the 22 year cycle and are not
restricted to phases of high solar activity.
Actually, these findings manifest the same features as the CR QBO.
Gnevyshev Gap and the step-like structure of the GCR modulation as
appearance of the QBO
Blue curves are the cosmic ray intensity as observed with the
Moscow neutron monitor, red curves are the QBO in cosmic rays,
grey curves are the QBO in the HMF strength. Green arrows
indicate the step-like CR modulation, brown arrows stand for the
Gnevyshev Gaps.
Comparison between the QBOs in solar activity and cosmic rays (1)
The QBOs are
modulated by
11-year cycle:
Well in solar
activity
2
15
HMF B, nT
1
10
0
-1
-2
1960
Moderately in
HMF
5
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0
2020
Cosmic rays, %1987
4
105
2
100
95
0
90
-2
85
-4
-61960
80
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
202075
Rather weakly in
cosmic rays
Comparison between QBOs in solar activity and cosmic rays (2)
Average QBO amplitudes vs. 11- year
cycle amplitudes
Sunspot area: apparent
dependence
HMF: weak dependence if any
Cosmic rays: weak dependence if any
Comparison between QBOs in solar activity and cosmic rays (3)
Average QBO duration vs. 11-year
cycle duration:
No apparent dependence
Differences in solar and heliospheric QBOs refer to fundamental problem of interactions of
stars with convective outer layers and their respective stellar spheres (Zurbuchen 2007).
Conclusions
The QBOs in cosmic rays exist permanently. The cosmic ray QBOs as observed
in the space, atmosphere and on the ground level (i.e. of different energy) are
highly correlated.
Selected definite periodicity which is sometimes demonstrated by the cosmic
rays and HMF (e.g., ~1.7 year) is not stable. The QBOs in cosmic rays
demonstrate intermittency and irregularity similar to the QBOs in solar
activity (sign of stochasticity). However the selected periodicity are useful for
search of links, e.g. between CRs and terrestrial phenomena.
Gnevyshev Gap and step-like changes in the cosmic ray intensity are
appearances of the QBOs.
Conclusions (cont.)
The QBOs in cosmic rays are due to the QBOs in solar activity, however,
they are translated via open magnetic flux. That is why the QBOs in
cosmic rays do not well correlate with the QBOs in solar indices, and are
rather coherent with the QBOs in heliospheric magnetic field (HMF)
strength B.
There is no apparent difference in the cosmic ray QBOs between the
odd and even 11-year solar cycles , however the correlation between
the QBO in cosmic rays and QBO in the HMF B is higher during periods
of positive polarity of the solar magnetic field (A>0 ).
Contrary to the solar QBOs, the QBOs in cosmic rays are hardly
modulated by the 11-year cycle. The cosmic ray QBOs amplitudes and
duration do not correlate with those of the 11-year cycle.
Здесь исследуются эмпирические свойства квазидвухлетних вариаций КЛ. Но мы надеемся, что в
дальнейшем удастся прояснить некоторые детали
механизмов модуляции ГКЛ солнечной активности.
Спасибо!
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