Десятая ежегодная конференция "Физика плазмы в солнечной системе“, ИКИ, 16-20 февраля 2015 г. СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ КВАЗИДВУХЛЕТНИМИ ОСЦИЛЛЯЦИЯМИ ИНТЕНСИВНОСТИ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ ЛУЧЕЙ И СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ Г.А. Базилевская, М.С. Калинин, М.Б. Крайнев, В.С. Махмутов, А.К. Свиржевская, Н.С. Свиржевский, Ю.И. Стожков (ФИАН) QBO on the Sun What are QBO? year solar cycle T ~ 1-3 years. Amplitudes are modulated by the 11- Motivation: The QBOs are recognized as one of the basic variations of solar activity. • The QBOs appear to be the most prevalent quasi periodicity shorter than the 11-yr cycle in solar activity phenomena. The majority of the Sun researchers believe that QBOs are intrinsic to the solar dynamo mechanism (Benevolenskaya 1998, 2003, 2005; Howe et al. 2000; Krivova and Solanki 2002; Mursula et al. 2003; Mursula and Vilppola 2004; Cadavid et al.2005; Knaack and Stenflo 2005; Forgács-Dajka and Borkovits 2007; Obridko and Shelting 2007; Ruzmaikin et al. 2008; Valdés-Galicia and Velasco 2008; Vecchio and Carbone 2009;Vecchio et al. 2010, 2012b; Zaqarashvili et al. 2010; Katsavrias et al. 2012; Laurenza et al.2012; Singh and Gautam Badruddin 2012; D’Alessi et al. 2013; Popova 2013; Popova and Yukhina 2013; Popova and Potemina 2013; Popova et al., 2014; Cho et al. 2014). Specific features of solar QBO • The QBOS are ubiquitous: observed from below the photosphere up to the corona. • The QBOs in various indices of solar activity related to different levels of the solar atmosphere are rather coherent. • But the oscillations in the northern and southern solar hemispheres develop independently. • Amplitudes of the solar QBOs are modulated by 11-year cycle. • The QBOs are highly irregular resembling a set of intermittent pulses/waves with signatures of stochasticity. Wang and Sheeley (2003) simulated QBO successfully assuming that active regions emerge at randomly distributed longitudes, while the periodicity was determined the decay timescale of the equatorial dipole. Motivation for study QBO in cosmic rays: • The solar QBOs are translated into the heliosphere through the open magnetic flux and they permanently exist in the heliospheric parameters and cosmic ray modulation. • Previously the QBOs in cosmic rays were studied by many authors, among them Hill et al, 2000; Rybak et al., 2001; Krainev et al., 2002; Kudela et al., 2002, 2010; Kato et al, 2003; Mavromichalaki et al, 2003; Mursula et al., 2003; Kane, 2005; Valdes-Galicia and Velasko, 2008; Veccio et al, 2010, 2012; Okhlopkov, 2011; Laurenza et al., 2012. Most of them focused on a selected periodicities, such as 2 yr, 1.7yr, 1.3 yr or ~1 yr, and tried to find correlations with solar activity. • Our aim is to treat these variations as a special class of CR solar modulation. In particular, we show that (1) the Gnevyshev gap effect and the step-like cosmic ray modulation are appearance of QBO; (2) there is permanent high correlation between the QBO in cosmic rays and IMF strength. The 11-year variations and the QBOs in cosmic rays Black&Red – ballon Murmansk, Pfotzer maximum Green&Blue – Apatity neutron monitor The QBOs in cosmic rays are irregular similarly to solar activity. No apparent difference between A>0 and A<0 magnetic cycles. Possible definite periodicity: 1.7 years in solar cycles 20-23 ~1.7 year periodicity in QBOs of cosmic rays and heliospheric magnetic field (see also Rybak et al., 2001; Kudela et al., 2002, 2010; Kato et al, 2003; Mursula et al., 2003; et many others). Power density spectrum Definite periodisity exists only during limited time interval. Averaged amplitudes of 11-year variations (7 mon smoothed) and QBO Dates (end for 11yr variation) 11-year variation QBO(till 2012.96) Ratio QBO/11yr Sunspot area, mdp IMF B, nT Cosmic rays, Balloon Murmansk %1987.21 1954.3-2008.9 1965-2009.7 1958.5-2009.6 1963.6-2009.6 2570 5.34 38.5 15.8 ±337 ±0.91 ±3.2 ±2.1 384 0.95 5.45 2.62 ±49 ±0.08 ±0.37 ±0.23 0.15 0.18 0.14 0.17 ±0.03 ±0.03 ±0.02 ±0.03 Cosmic rays, NM Moscow, %1987.21 R=-0.68±0.02, D=1 300 100 -100 -300 -500 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2020 IMF B, nT NM Moscow, count rate 500 NM Moscow HMF B Year -100 R=-0.50±0.03, D=1 300 -50 100 0 -100 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 NM Moscow V 50 -300 -500 1960 V, km/s NM Moscow, count rate 500 100 2020 Year -1500 R=-0.72±0.02, D=1 -1000 300 -500 100 0 -100 500 -300 -500 1960 1000 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 1500 2020 B*V NM Moscow, count rate 500 NM Moscow B*V QBOs in different 11-year cycles and in the periods with different solar magnetic field polarities Search of any difference in behavior of correlation between QBOs in heliospheric magnetic field and in cosmic rays: • For different 11year cycles of solar activity – no difference. • For periods with different polarities of the general solar magnetic field. Correlation is remarkably stronger for the positive magnetic polarity. Correlation between QBO in CR and HMF, different solar cycles dates Cycle Delay, R error 1 -0.74 0.04 months 1967.54 1976.46 fall of 20 1976.54 1986.79 21 2 -0.70 0.05 1986.87 1996.37 22 0 -0.74 0.04 1996.46 2008.87 23 1 -0.66 0.05 2008.96 2012.87 1 -0.74 0.07 rise of 24 Correlation between QBO in CR and HMF, different SMF polarity dates A sign 1970.87 1980.12 >0 Delay, months 1 R er -0.79 0.04 1980.04 1990.96 <0 1 -0.67 0.05 1990.87 2000.96 >0 0 -0.79 0.03 2000.87 2012.96 <0 1 -0.70 0.04 «Ступенчатая» модуляция КЛ 100 600 Нейтронный монитор Москва 500 80 60 40 400 300 Стратосфера, Мурманская обл., выс.~20 км Число солнечных пятен 20 100 0 1955 200 0 1965 1975 1985 Год Эффект Гневышева 1995 2005 2015 Число солнечных пятен Интенсивность космических лучей, % of 1965 120 Эффект Гневышева – двухпиковая структура максимума 11-летнего солнечного цикла. Проявляется во всех индексах солнечной активности, а также в межпланетной среде, но не стабилен (проявляется не во всех циклах). Избранные работы: Sykora, 1980; Antalova and Gnevyshev, 1983; Storini, 1997; Feminella abd Storini, 1997; Bazilevskaya et al., 2000; Storini et al., 2003, Storini and Laurenza, 2003; Kane, 2002, 2005, 2006; Norton and Gallagher, 2010; Lukianova and Mursula, 2011; Kilcik and Ozguk, 2014; etc. Гневышев М.Н., 1963, Астрономический журнал, № 7, с. 311-318. Gnevyshev, M. N. 1967, Solar Phys. 1, 107. Step-like structure of galactic CR modulation Burlaga et al., 1993: result of CR modulation by the global interaction regions (GMIR) of HMF which were formed by coronal mass ejections (CME), shocks and fast-speed flow of solar wind at distance of ~10 a.u Cane et al., 1999: the step-like events in CR are simultaneous with the solar magnetic field variations derived from photospheric observations alone. Wibberenz and Cane, 2000: the “medium-term modulation events” related to variations in the open magnetic flux carried by solar wind. Such events are distributed throughout the 22 year cycle and are not restricted to phases of high solar activity. Actually, these findings manifest the same features as the CR QBO. Gnevyshev Gap and the step-like structure of the GCR modulation as appearance of the QBO Blue curves are the cosmic ray intensity as observed with the Moscow neutron monitor, red curves are the QBO in cosmic rays, grey curves are the QBO in the HMF strength. Green arrows indicate the step-like CR modulation, brown arrows stand for the Gnevyshev Gaps. Comparison between the QBOs in solar activity and cosmic rays (1) The QBOs are modulated by 11-year cycle: Well in solar activity 2 15 HMF B, nT 1 10 0 -1 -2 1960 Moderately in HMF 5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 2020 Cosmic rays, %1987 4 105 2 100 95 0 90 -2 85 -4 -61960 80 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202075 Rather weakly in cosmic rays Comparison between QBOs in solar activity and cosmic rays (2) Average QBO amplitudes vs. 11- year cycle amplitudes Sunspot area: apparent dependence HMF: weak dependence if any Cosmic rays: weak dependence if any Comparison between QBOs in solar activity and cosmic rays (3) Average QBO duration vs. 11-year cycle duration: No apparent dependence Differences in solar and heliospheric QBOs refer to fundamental problem of interactions of stars with convective outer layers and their respective stellar spheres (Zurbuchen 2007). Conclusions The QBOs in cosmic rays exist permanently. The cosmic ray QBOs as observed in the space, atmosphere and on the ground level (i.e. of different energy) are highly correlated. Selected definite periodicity which is sometimes demonstrated by the cosmic rays and HMF (e.g., ~1.7 year) is not stable. The QBOs in cosmic rays demonstrate intermittency and irregularity similar to the QBOs in solar activity (sign of stochasticity). However the selected periodicity are useful for search of links, e.g. between CRs and terrestrial phenomena. Gnevyshev Gap and step-like changes in the cosmic ray intensity are appearances of the QBOs. Conclusions (cont.) The QBOs in cosmic rays are due to the QBOs in solar activity, however, they are translated via open magnetic flux. That is why the QBOs in cosmic rays do not well correlate with the QBOs in solar indices, and are rather coherent with the QBOs in heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) strength B. There is no apparent difference in the cosmic ray QBOs between the odd and even 11-year solar cycles , however the correlation between the QBO in cosmic rays and QBO in the HMF B is higher during periods of positive polarity of the solar magnetic field (A>0 ). Contrary to the solar QBOs, the QBOs in cosmic rays are hardly modulated by the 11-year cycle. The cosmic ray QBOs amplitudes and duration do not correlate with those of the 11-year cycle. Здесь исследуются эмпирические свойства квазидвухлетних вариаций КЛ. Но мы надеемся, что в дальнейшем удастся прояснить некоторые детали механизмов модуляции ГКЛ солнечной активности. Спасибо!