НЕΦТЬ АЗЕРБАЙДЖАНА: доходы, расходы и риски
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ISBN 2 . _____________________________________________________ ……………………………………………………..... 7 ………………. 18 ..…………………………………………… ……………………… 19 29 1.4. …………………………………………….. ………………….......... 55 55 2.1. 2.2. ...…………………………… ...…………………………………… ……………………………...….... 58 58 67 …………………………………. 77 ……………………………………… 83 …………….. ……………………….. 84 86 ………………………………….. 87 ………………………………….. .. ……… …………. 88 89 91 92 1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 2. 3. 4. 3 _____________________________________________________ 5. …………………… ………….. 93 97 ? …………………………………………………………… 5.1. , ..………………………….. 5.2. , ……………………………….... 5.3. , ………………………………….. 5.4. , ……………………. 5.5. , …………………………. 5.6. , ……………………………… 99 6. 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. 6.4. 6.5. 7. 4 100 126 134 136 137 138 ………………………………………………... …………….. ……………………. ………………… 140 140 141 151 ………………………………………………… 157 ? …………………. 160 …………………………. 162 ……………………………………………….. ………………………………………………….. 173 179 _____________________________________________________ – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 5 _____________________________________________________ – – – – – – AZM – AZN – DFID – USAID – USD 6 – 2006 2006 _____________________________________________________ . « 2005-2006 : », ) . , , . , . – , , « », 1 . ».1 : , , , . . , , , 2004 7 _____________________________________________________ 1848 . . 19- , , . ( ). , . ( 26 . 2006 ( ). 1997 . ( 1994 ) . - ), . 2006 . - . 18 . _____________________________________________________ . , , , . ( . : 1) , , 3) , 4) , 6) , , 5) . ) ( ), . . USD. 15-20 150 . (2008-2012 .USD , , . , 200 , , 2) , $45/ ), , . USD 2025 ) . , 2025 $60/ 2005 9 _____________________________________________________ 4.3 USD. 2025 , , , . $18 , . . 2024 $60 . , . , , . 1999 . . . 1997 . , . 1992 10 1992 , 1999 , . – _____________________________________________________ , . ( ) 2001 . , . , , , . 4059 - 998.9 2001 AZM (0.82 . USD) . 2006 AZN (1105.4 . USD)3. 2001-2006 : 1) 2 ; . 3) ; 2) ; ( ); 7) 4) ; 5) ; 6) 2007 2 , 2001. http://www.oilfund.az/download/az/2001_az.pdf 3 , 2006. http://www.oilfund.az/download/OilfundAz_2006.pdf 11 _____________________________________________________ 2006 . 2004-2006 . , 2007 . . . %. 2006 . , 2006 2007 4 67%5. : 1) ), 2) 4) , 2005 77 , ( , . , , , 4 . , http://www.azstat.org/publications/azfigures/2007/az/020.shtml#t20_1 2006 3790123.6 , http://www.maliyye.gov.az/download/news/01.06.2007_GANUN-2006.pdf 2007 6314900.0 , http://www.maliyye.gov.az/download/news/01.06.2007_Qanun-2007%20%20MM.pdf 5 12 3) , _____________________________________________________ , . , , . , , , , . , . , . . , : , , , : ; ; - ; - ; ; ; 13 _____________________________________________________ ; . . , , . , , , . , , , . , ? . 2003 , , , . ? 14 : : _____________________________________________________ ; ; . . , . , , , , . . : 15 _____________________________________________________ ; ; , , ; ; ; ; - ; . . . 16 , , _____________________________________________________ . , , , , , . . , - . , , . , , , , . . - , , , , , . . , , 17 _____________________________________________________ 1. . : ( )? . 24 . . , BP7. , :A 24 , , , . . . 6 7 http://subsites.bp.com/caspian/ACG/Eng/agmt1/agmt1.pdf http://subsites.bp.com/caspian/SHA/Eng/agmt1/SD%20PSA_final.pdf 18 266 _____________________________________________________ . 8 , 9 . , , : ; ; ; , - . 1.1. , 80. , 8 . http://www.socar.gov.az/regulation-en.html . http://www.socar.gov.az/decree-en.html 9 http://taxes.gov.az/qanun/psa.shtml 19 _____________________________________________________ , . , 70- , , » « 1985-1987 », , , . . , , . , 1991»10. , « Statoil), Amoco v Unocal. 1991 , Amoco. , . Amoco, 10 2525 . 20 18- BP p , BP/Statoil 1991- , , _____________________________________________________ Unocal, McDermott, Ramco. p . - 1991- . - . , . . , , . . , , - . , . , 1992- , 21 _____________________________________________________ , . 1992BP/Statoil « », . 7- « », 1Pennzoil/Ramco « « » – ». . BP/Statoil, - , 30- . Pennzoil/Ramco 1- , « ». « Pennzoil/Ramco 90 « 1992« 22 « » » » 6 . « » BP/Statoil ». , », « . » « », _____________________________________________________ , , . 5 , . . , , , , , . 1993», « » 6« ». , 4- 1993- . , : – , ), ( , , , - ; 30%. , 23 _____________________________________________________ , ; 2 3 10- . , , – ; - ; ; ; , . , , - , . , , . 24 , _____________________________________________________ , . 1993- . , . , 1994- « , « » ( « « ». », 20- »), : BP ), Amoco ( ), Lukoil ), Pennzoil ), Unocal ( ), Statoil ( ), McDermott ( ), Ramco ( ), TPAO ( ), Delta Nimir ). . , , . . 1.1 1994-2006: , 25 _____________________________________________________ 1.1. N N - 1 20.09.94 02.12.94 2 10.11.95 13.02.96 3 04.06.96 04.10.96 4 14.12.96 25.02.97 13.01.97 13.06.97 5 6 7 8 26 - 03.07.97 05.12.97 01.08.97 05.12.97 01.08.97 05.12.97 - - , , - *, % (10); BP (34.1367); ChevronTexaco(10.2814); Lukoil(10.0000); Statoil(8.5633); ExxonMobil(8.0006); TPAO(6.7500); Devon Energy(5.6262); Itochu(3.9205); Amerada Hess (2.7213) (7.5); Lukoil (12.5); Devon Energy (30.0); Agip-Lukoil(45); Agip(5) (10); BP(25.5); Statoil (25.5); LukAgip(10); TotalFinaElf(10); OIEC(10); TPAO(9) (20); BP(30); Unocal(25.5); Itochu(20); Delta(4.5) (25); Elf(40); Total(10); DEMINEX(10); OIEC(10); PETROFINA(5) (40); LUKOIL(32.4); ARCO(27.6) (50); Chevron(30); Total(20) (50); ExxonMobil(50) _____________________________________________________ N N 9 10 *, % (50); ExxonMobil(50) 01.08.97 05.12.97 02.06.98 07.07.98 - (50); Agip(25); MITSUI (15); TPAO (5); REPSOL (5) , , - 11 12 13 20.07.98 01.12.98 20.07.98 18.12.98 ,A , 25.12.98 11.06.99 , 14 02.06.98 13.11.98 - 15 21.07.98 20.11.98 16 02.06.98 16.04.99 27.04.99 17 , - , , , , (50); LASMO (12.5); BP (25); CTK (12..5) (40); BP(15); Statoil (15); TPAO(10); Alberta Energy(5); ExxonMobil(15) (50); Japex(22.5); Inpex(12.5); Itochu(7.5); Telkoku(7.5) (20); CNPC(50.26); Commonwelth Oil & Gas(29.74) (50); Ramco(50) , (50); Frontera Resousers(30); Delta-Hess(20) (50);ExxonMobil(30); ?(20) , 27 _____________________________________________________ N N 18 19 *, % 27.04.99 21.04.00 27.04.99 09.06.00 20 12.09.00 25.10.00 21 09.01.01 12.06.01 04.06.03 02.12.03 29.09.04 29.04.05 18.06.04 29.04.05 05.11.04 29.04.05 16.08.05 22 23 24 25 26 * (50); ExxonMobil(30); Conoco(20) (20); Moncrief Oil(80) , (15); Moncrief Oil International Inc.(49.7); Petoil(35.3) (50); Lukoil(50) , , (20); engli (50); ntersun(30) (25); AZEN(75) (25); Noble Sky(75) (50); Caspian Energy Group(50) (25); Rafi O L FZE (B (75) . , , 28 , ) . . _____________________________________________________ , , , , , , , , . : , , , , , , . , . 1.2. 11 , , ” ( ). . , 11 – . , , , . »( ) « . » . 5- 20. 12.5%. ». 29 _____________________________________________________ “ ” ( ( , ), ), . , , . . , ) – . . . . , , . . ( 30 ) _____________________________________________________ . , , “ , ”. . 12 , . ( . ( Devon Energy 5.6262% Itochu 3.9205% , ) . TPAO 6.7500% .1.1 1.1) . , Delta Hes s 2.7213% SOCAR 10.0000% ExxonMobil 8.0006% Statoil 8.5633% Lukoil 10.0000% Unocal 10.2814% BP 34.1367% . 1.1. 12 http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9006615&contentId=7037409 31 _____________________________________________________ . . ; 2) . : 1) ; 3) , , . . : . , . » - 30 , « , » , 32 , . , 30 . 25» » - 35 « A . , , , « . , : - _____________________________________________________ , . . . $1200 . $2000/ . . 1400 . $2,800,000/ . . . , , . . . , . , : , , 33 _____________________________________________________ , ; , , ( , , , , .). : ; ; . . 34 1.2 . , _____________________________________________________ . Nx( = ) . = (100-N) x ( ) = Px = (100-P) x . 1.2. :N– , ( ). ; P – ). ( , , , ( , ). , . . 35 _____________________________________________________ , N , . , , , . , , ). , ( , 25-70% . 50% . , . , ) , . 1.2, . ( , . . 36 , 50%. , , , _____________________________________________________ , . , , , , . , . , . , , , : , , ; , R - « ». . , , » « , . ). - , , 37 _____________________________________________________ , , ). : 13 ; ; . ( ) . , , ) 14 . 3 , , , , 30« 38 , . 1.2: 13 14 , -1». . _____________________________________________________ 1.2. ,% ,% < 16,75% 16,75% <= < 22,75% 22,75% <= , . , 30 70 55 45 80 20 , , 3- . , %5 . , , «R: ». A(n)+B(n)+C(n) R(n+1) = ---------------------D(n) 39 _____________________________________________________ : , A(n) – n- ), nn- R- , . . 1.3 , , . , . R- , , . . (Net Prsent Value) (PI – Profitability Index) . . , . 40 ; C(n) – , ; D(n) – n- . . ( ; B(n) – , . – - _____________________________________________________ , , , , , . « ., . , ( , . 11.4 ) ». ¼ . , ». , . . Libor + 4%, , . ., . « » . 41 _____________________________________________________ . , , ( ). , 30- , : ; ; ; ; ; , , . . . 3 . . 199510 – 10 ( . 42 1- . 1999- BP ( ), . ). _____________________________________________________ . ( , ). , . , . . , , ( ) . , ; ; . ; ; : ; . (A « ), ». . » . . , , . 43 _____________________________________________________ : 1) , 2) . . , , 1992, BP/Statoil « 30 3 30 » . . « ». . . , 40.000 60. , . .1.4 , 202,5 , . , . . , . 44 2007- . . 9.9 _____________________________________________________ 1.3. R >= , < - - - - - - - , - 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 50.0 50.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 62.5 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 45.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 90.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 62.5 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 - - 0 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 , , , - 50.0 50.0 52.5 57.5 57.5 65.0 65.0 75.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 85.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 60.0 67.0 67.0 77.0 77.0 82.5 87.5 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 75.0 85.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 50.0 52.5 57.5 57.5 65.0 65.0 75.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 52.5 52.5 57.5 57.5 65.0 65.0 75.0 75.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 85.0 85.0 87.5 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 52.5 55.0 57.5 60.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 50.0 52.5 55.0 57.5 60.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 45 _____________________________________________________ 1.4. . USD * 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 37 30 10 10 10 11 12 13 30135 8 37 8 32 32 303030- 6040000 6012000 . 30100 25 25 42 42 100 20 67.5 1 25 2.5 1 1 30- 2.5 2.5 2.5 10 10 2.5 1 , 100 . 30- 50 : 1) 6012000 30- 60- 10 46 25 30 50 ; 2) 6067.5 30- * 10 10 1.1. . : ; ; ; ( .1.5 , ). . . , , , : , ; ; ; , . , , , _____________________________________________________ ; , . ; , , ; , , . , . . 1.5. ,% , 48 25 25 25 25 % 5 6.25 6.25 6.25 _____________________________________________________ ,% 32 , , , 15 :« 8 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 30 32 , , % , », , , , , 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7.5 8 « », « », « ». . , , 15 - , , , , . http://www.taxes.gov.az/qanun/psa.shtml 49 _____________________________________________________ , . . . . , , . , . , 16 ( ? , , , , . . , . , , , ). , . API°16. , , , API – American Petroleum Institute ( 50 – . ) _____________________________________________________ , , , ( ), , . . , , , . , , ( , 2) . . . , , , , , , , . , , , . , , ). : 1) – , - . . , . , 51 _____________________________________________________ , . : , , , FOB, C F, C , , . . F, . 30- , 17 , . . , , , . , , , , . 18 . , , 17 - 18 1319 « 19 , . . » , , , . , . 52 _____________________________________________________ , 33.3% . ( ( ) ( , , ). , , , , , , ( ) , , , , “Platt’s Oilqram”. , , %33.3 . , , , . , , 30- . ), . . , , , . . 53 _____________________________________________________ . , , , , , , . . . .). . 54 ( – , . . , 24 , _____________________________________________________ 1.3. , , , : ; ; ; ; ; ( 10%) ; – ; . 1. 4. , . . , . 1.6 55 _____________________________________________________ 1.6. 29 1999 ( , , 849 7652 1- )20 A , A , 20032005- A A , . 20 , 2001-2006- 2006- http://www.oilfund.az/index.php?n=164 56 . 2006- _____________________________________________________ , 1165.6 21 1100 , , , . . 22 . , , , , . , 21 , 2006. http://www.oilfund.az/download/OilfundAz_2006.pdf 22 http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/download/EITI_report_2006_eng.pdf 57 _____________________________________________________ 2. 2.1. 2006 . . 100 23 6.5 24 . 22.1 , BP, 100 5.4 23 26 BP, . . BP 750 . “Turan”, 27.10.06 “Turan”, 02.08.06 24 25 . 0.85 25 26 27 - http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9006667&contentId=7014330 http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9006668&contentId=7014342 27 58 . _____________________________________________________ . ? . , . , 700 , . . . 1997 . 1995-2000 . 62% , , . . . ( 28 . , (270,964.7 28 – 100 4 , . 1997 , , . , – 162,346.2 360 . , 2001 ), , , , 2001 59 _____________________________________________________ – . – 8,258.6 2002 ) 52.6 . 124 2003 (65.4 , , 48.6 ExxonMobil)29. 10 ( 5.2) : , ; , ; ; ; . 29 2006 , - ; . 2.1 2001 . . 2003. http://www.oilfund.az/download/az/2003_az.pdf 60 _____________________________________________________ 30 . 2002 . , . USD : 124273 24.3 = ------------- 289.5 1474499 2002 USD. : 124273 – 2002, AZM; 1474499 – AZM; 289.5 - . , , , , 2002 , , , . . 30 ( , ) , : , http://www.oilfund.az/az/account 61 2.1. 1 , : 31 2001, .AZM/ . USD 1241018.0/ 270.9 826 601.7/ 177.8 29 927.4/ 6.4 54 797.0/ 11.7 50 064.1/ 10.7 2 225.3/ 0.5 - 2002, .AZM/ . USD 2346951.1/ 491.5 975 882/ 200.6 257 630*/ 52.6* 61681.0/ 12.7 52 704/ 10.8 2 329/ 0.5 - 2004, .AZM/ . USD 4015033.8/ 815.6 1 294 834.7/ 263.8 105 991.1/ 21.6 59 712.3/ 12.1 43 261.0/ 8.8 - 2005, .AZM/ . USD 4726257.4/ 964.0 2 713 094.8/ 579.9 4 592.1/ 1.0 78 217.6/ 16.5 40 756.0/ 8.8 - 2006, .AZN/ . USD 1280457.0/ 1394.3 896 258.0/ 1005.4 1 797.7/ 2.0 12 716.3/ 14.2 7 570.9/ 8.6 - - 2003, .AZM/ . USD 3387278.1/ (692.2) 869 008.3/ 176.9 608 945.8*/ 124.0* 63 588.9/ 12.9 94 555.3/ 19.3 586.4/ 0.1 24.4/ (0.005) - 2984.3/ (0.607) - 7612.9/ (1.625) 316474.2/ 124 273.0/ (24.3) 1 474 499/ 289.5 3 821 450.1/ 781.0 183 784.1/ (37.4) 1 820 493.2/ (370.7) 4 015 033.8/ (815.6) 75 623.2/ (15.4) 1 582 406.6/ (322.1) 4 726 257.4/ 964.0 139 576.3/ (29.8) 3 300 323.9/ 704.6 6 402 284.4/ 1 394.3 669.8/ (0.792) 10 972.7/ 12.5 55 953.3/ (122.2) 985 938.7/ 1 165.6 1 267 444.8/ 1 454.5 146 378/ 14.2 2 351 011.5/ 492.4 2 351 011.5/ 492.4 , 2004, 2005 2006. , 2002, 2001 . . 2003 2003, , 2004 , 2003 2003 AZM 2004 . . 2004 31 USD . . . . 1.3 . 1- . , 31 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/cr08216.pdf 2007 , , . 30% 70% , _____________________________________________________ ( , 1.1) 1.3. , 32 , . ( - USD) 2.2. 2.2. - 2001 3.87 2002 2.15 2003 4.42 2004 1.88 2005 2.79 2006 8.5 33 2006 , . , (AZN) 2006 (51.6%) 8.2% - 32 2.9%. . 2.134. 7 3 . 5 - 2006 1 . 33.9% , 2.8% - 5 7 1 http://www.oilfund.az/az/content/13/9 , http://www.oilfund.az/index.php?n=19 34 , 2006 64 33 2006 3 , , 3.5% - _____________________________________________________ . . 2.1. .2.3 31 2006 . Group) 2006 , 8.6% ( 6.28%, 2006 – 5.25%. 2005 , 2006 . . Credit Swiss 28 , 35% - 55% , 5% . 65 _____________________________________________________ 2.3. % sM : . : : . 2.2 , 1 260.5 - 34.9 74.8 45.4 1 370.2 45.4 94.2 3.1 834.3 8.6 28.4 871.3 59.9 163.8 9.3 - 173.1 11.9 192.2 2.0 1.0 195.2 13.4 70.2 69.1 15.0 4.6 7.5 3.7 85.2 4.6 80.3 5.9 0.3 5.5 - 7.4 - 7.4 0.5 0.8 68.3 1329.6 0.1 47.0 2.5 1.2 78.5 3.3 69.6 1 455.1 0.2 4.8 100 2001-2006 ( 2001 - 2003 , 2008 . 66 ). . ( . . 1.3), _____________________________________________________ , 0.04% 2.39% 0.10% 2.78% 2.86% 7.11% 1.12% 83.60% . 2.2. 2.2. . , , . . 2.2. . , . 67 _____________________________________________________ , , . , , , , . 2.3 , . : 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 . 2.3. 440 – . , 68 . . , , 2010 2024 – , , , _____________________________________________________ , 2008 , . 18 . . , , , , , . . . : , . , . $3/ , . , . , 2024 20 , 4 $25, $35, $45 $60 . . . . , : $18, . $2/ . 69 _____________________________________________________ , ( ) , . . 2.4 . : , 1– ; 2– ; 3– ; 4– ; 5– ; 6– ; 7 – 22% ; 8– ; 9– ; 10 – . . ( , , . 70 . .) , , 5%- , _____________________________________________________ . 2.4. . 6- A C . 4 B 1 3 2 5 6 7 8 9 10 . 2.4. 7- . 2.4 . ( ) 22%- , 71 _____________________________________________________ (8(9(10, . , . ). ). , , , , ) , . . . 2.5 . .USD 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2004 2008 2012 2016 $18/barrel $25/barrel $45/barrel $60/barrel . 2.5. 72 2020 2024 $35/barrel _____________________________________________________ , , 2024 , . 50 , . , . , , 25%, ( , . . . . , 5% , . . ) 5%. 150 , , 25%, , 20%- . , . , , . 60 2.6. . , 73 _____________________________________________________ 2.3 . . 2500 .USD 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 $18/barrel $45/barrel $60/barrel . 2.6. , 10% 10%. , , . 2003 7 35 35 . http://www.oilfund.az/index.php?n=174 74 , . . 16 , , 2007 , , _____________________________________________________ 2003 ( . ) . 102.3 . 2.7 , . . , , 20-30 . , . 1200 .USD 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 $18/barrel $45/barrel $60/barrel . 2.7. 75 _____________________________________________________ , $45/ , , . . , , 2007-2024 170 , , . . . , 100 , , . , . , , , , , . . , , , , . 76 , _____________________________________________________ 3. , 1992 , 1994 1, . 1993 . 100 , , . 1995 , .3.1 2000 36 . 91 82 . U SD 80 56 60 50 37 29 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 . 3.1. 36 . TACIS. 2001, 77 _____________________________________________________ 1999 , . , « 2001 , .), ( ». . , 3.1 2001 .). 37 2006 . 2 : , , , . . AZN 38 2006 ) 17575 AZN. . 3.2 2001-2006 37 . , www.oilfund.az http://www.oilfund.az/index.php?n=23 78 38 297,9 . ( 3.1. 2001, . AZM - 2002, . AZM 2003, . AZM 2004, . AZM 2005, . AZM 2006, .AZN/ .AZM : , AZM/ .AZN 3583.3 188839.0 99812.9 74952.3 201948.2 110031.5/ 550157.5 1119293.2/ 223858.64 - 242298.7 576000.0 89000.0 205000 - - 500000.0 650000 750000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 75409/ 377045.0 585000/ 2925000.0 82748.7/ 413743.5 37000.0/ 185000.0 90000/ 450000.0 1489343.7/ 297868.74 4825000.0/ 965000 413743.5/ 82748.7 185000/ 37000 450000.0/ 90000 476.6 3034.0 4307.3 3555.6 7838.3 4059.9 434171.7 1180120.2 817507.9 1164786.5 1186.6/ 5933.0 981375.9/ 4906879.0 25144.8/ 5028.96 8507525.2/ 1701505.04 – , . 56.7% 4.9% 17.5% 2.2% 13.2% 5.3% 0.3% . 3.2. . 3.3 . 6000000.0 4929693.5 4906879.0 5000000.0 .AZM 4000000.0 3300323.9 3000000.0 1820493.2 2000000.0 1582406.6 1474499.0 1180120.2 1109993.5 1164786.5 817507.9 1000000.0 434171.7 4059.9 0.0 2001 .3.3. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 _____________________________________________________ .3.2 , . 3.2. , . AZN 39 , . AZN 40 , % 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0,8 86,8 236,0 163,5 232,9 981.3 . 3.3 41 3.3. 806.6 931.7 1 234.0 1 501.0 2 140.7 3 789.7 0 0 8.1 8.6 7.0 15.4 2007 : 2007 , N AZN 1. 124 161,0 2. 585 000,0 39 , www.oilfund.az http://www.azstat.org/publications/azfigures/2007/az/020.shtml#t20_1 41 www.oilfund.az 40 81 _____________________________________________________ , N AZN - 3. 183 620,0 4. 76 900,0 5. 7 385,9 977 066,9 , , , 5. ( ) ? . 82 , , , , , _____________________________________________________ 4. : ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; . , 83 _____________________________________________________ , . , . . , , , , . . , , , . , , . 42 . 2001 . 42 84 , 2002 http://www.oilfund.az/index_en.php?n=19 2001-2006 , _____________________________________________________ PriceWaterhouseCoopers Deloitte&Touche. , Ernst&Young, . . . , . , 2004 1,091 USD43. , . 43 , , , . (OMS). OMS » , . Overture Managed Solutions « . OMS , 2004 www.oilfund.az/index_en.php?n=19 85 _____________________________________________________ , . Solutions - Overture Financial Services Overture Managed 2005 . 2005 . . York 44 . . Bank of New , . : 2002 – 288.9 274008 , 2004 – 284.3 USD, 2006 – 317,000 AZN45. , . , USD, 2003 – USD, 2005 – 289.7 . 16 , , . , 44 , 2004 www.oilfund.az/index_en.php?n=19 45 , www.oilfund.az 86 _____________________________________________________ . . , , , , , . . , . . , , , : ; ; ; ; , ; - . . , . 99 87 _____________________________________________________ . 109 , . , , . , . , , . . . 1995, 2000 16 , 2005 : . , , 88 . . , , . , . . . 5% , . _____________________________________________________ . , . – International” ( , 159 2004 46 “Transparency 127-143 : , ) 2005 . . , , , ) “Transparency Azerbaijan” , (52,2%) 86,9 %(34,7%). : ; ; ; ; ; . 46 http://www.alac-az.org/transpfiles/25.pdf 89 _____________________________________________________ . . « 47 2007» 10 2007 – ( 212 ). : 1) , 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) ; ; , ; ; ; . .4.1: 4.1. (0-100) 47 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 16.7 24.5 19.2 24.5 19.2 18.8 25.5 15.4 23.1 11.1 23.1 10.1 17.8 12.0 14.9 15.9 16.6 17.5 19.4 19.4 22.3 18.5 30.8 27.5 15.6 17.6 13.1 19.0 14.8 9.7 22.4 14.8 7.3 23.9 21.9 11.2 28.3 24.3 12.1 30.2 22.4 9.2 32.2 23.8 16.0 34.1 22.4 15.0 http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp 90 _____________________________________________________ . 4.1 . . 1918 , . , , , . 1991 1992 . , 35% . , , – , 59 % , , , . , . 1995, 2000, 2005 . , , , 1993 ( 2003 , ), 1998 . . , , , 91 _____________________________________________________ . , . 50 . , . , . . 2000 . . . , . . , , : , , 48 48 A . , – , – , – , – – », 92 « », « – _____________________________________________________ , , ? , : 1) ; 2) . ; 3) . 4) . , , . . , . . . , , », . , – – « » 93 _____________________________________________________ . 0.5 % 2 % . . 2 . – , , , 3 , 6 , , , , , . 57 , , , , , , . . , , 148 . 147 . 6 , “ 19 ". 94 1998 , 7 , " . ”, , . _____________________________________________________ . ( ) , , , . . . . . , , , . . , . . , . – , 2006 . , . . « : 135, », 168 – 6- , 95 _____________________________________________________ , , – 10- , – 27– 101- , – 123- , – 151- , – 105- , – 85- , – 128- . : – 147– 167- . , – 89– 117, 49 . : ? ? ? , , ? ? 49 : – « », – – , 96 « , « », «Gun», », – - _____________________________________________________ : , . , , . . , . ; ), , , ( ); – . . . ( , . 1) . . . , , , . , , 97 _____________________________________________________ , , , ( , 2001 - ) . 1-2 . , . , . , , . . . 98 , _____________________________________________________ 5. ? , : , . , - , , . . , . , , , , . , . . , , 99 _____________________________________________________ . : ; ; ; ; , , . : ; - . 5.1. , , . , : . ; 100 _____________________________________________________ ; ; ; , ; - . 50 . . 2002 , 13 2001 29 2000 2002 , 2 . : . . 3 , ; - ( ; 50 ) Alan Doig and Stephanie McIvor. The National Integrity System. National Integrity systems Country Studies Terms of Reference. Commonwealth countries project 101 _____________________________________________________ , ; ; ; ; ( , , ); ; ; ; . 2, , , 102 ? 4, , , , , , , . _____________________________________________________ , , , , . . : , . 4 4.1.9. , , , , , , , , ; , , , 4.2. ; 4.3. , , . . , , 103 _____________________________________________________ , . ( . 4.1.9, , , ) , . . 4.2, . , , . , , . , , ) . , , 4.3. ( , , . – . 20 ( 20.1.6). , , . . : ; 104 ., 4 _____________________________________________________ ; , 28 . . , . , – . 3 , 2002 6- . 28 ( 29 . 1- 29). 5- . , 51 9- : , , 28 ( 51 , . ), . , , , , . . , , . . , . http://www.csc.gov.az/?por=1&kr=65&id=144 105 _____________________________________________________ . , 27 , , , . . , , , , , , ? , , . « : . ), 18, ». , . » ». , , 106 , « « , , » « ? , , . . , : , . , . . , 18 ( (18.0.1 18.0.2), _____________________________________________________ . , , , . , . , 18.0.6 18.0.9 , . , , , , 18 , 19, . 19 . ? , . . , , , 19.0.11 , , , . . », « 5, 107 _____________________________________________________ , , , 18 . . 6 , 6 6 . — — . , , . . . . . « , » , . ) , 108 , . . ., , . , , « , , , , » . « – . . ( – » ., _____________________________________________________ . , . , ., , , . . , , , . 52 Transparency , Azerbaijan : - 20,8 %- ; – 29,1 %- ; – 26,3 %– 14,0 % - ; ; – . 7,0 %- , : - 22,1 %52 ; http://www.transparency-az.org/files/25.pdf 109 _____________________________________________________ – 28,9 %- ; – 19,2 %- ; – 14,2 % - ; – . , 6,3 %- . , . , 6 , , . . 18 , 5 19 , , . . (22 110 2002 29 . 21 2002 . 2005 ) _____________________________________________________ , : 668 29.01.02 « »; 855 20.02.03 « »; ; 02.08.02 124 « »; 28.10.02 165 « , ) »; 34 ( 28.02.03 )». 53 , : 53 Alan Doig and Stephanie McIvor. National Integrity systems. Country Studies Terms of Reference 111 _____________________________________________________ 1) , ? 2) , ? 3) , ? 4) ? 5) , ? 6) ? 7) 8) 9) ? , , ? / ? 10) ? 112 , , _____________________________________________________ ) . , , , . 10925 . . , . . 668 250 ( 16 , ? 54 – 1 » , 29.01.02 « 54 55 . , , ? , , ) , . , , 2006 1 = 5000 113 _____________________________________________________ . 55 . , , , . ? , 22 . , , , , . 60 40 20 . 26 25 , . , . , , . ? 55 , , 30 , ? , http://www.tender.gov.az/LawAz.html 114 ( 5.3, _____________________________________________________ 5 , ), , , . ? ? 38.2 . « , » , « . 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( 4) . . ” 121 _____________________________________________________ . . , 5 56 : 1) , ( , , , , ), 2) 3) , 4) , 5) 5000 $1.2), 6) , ( . 5. , , ( ., 5.1. ), 5000 , 5.1 , 5.2 , 5.2 . . 5.1? . » 6 . , 5.2 6- , , , . 56 , , 24 122 , 2005 . _____________________________________________________ . 7 , , , ( . . , ) . , . 50- . $60. 8 , . . , . , , , . , . . 123 _____________________________________________________ , . - 311 312. , 311, 3 312, . 1000 500 / . 12 2000 1000 3 8 , ”, 308, “ . , , 308 ,— . 124 . , , . _____________________________________________________ : ; ; . ( , , “ 10) , ”, . , , , , , . 57 , : , ( 2001 ( 308 ) ), 2000 - 22, 2002 – 24 2003 , 2000 57 16-18 - 4, 2002 15 309 11 , 2001 2003 OECD, 8 9, ; ), ; , , 2004 125 _____________________________________________________ , 1 6 . , ), 311 ), 2000 6, 2002 2001 7 2003 5 312 ( 4, 2001 . , 2000 7, 2002 5 2003 . 24 . , . ), ) 2005 ( ( , . . , . 5.2. , : 126 , , _____________________________________________________ 29 1999 , 29 2000 59 58 ; ; , . 19 2001 60 ; . 29 1999 . : , , ; , ; , . 58 http://www.oilfund.az/inside_az.php?zid=2&nID=125 http://www.oilfund.az/inside_az.php?zid=2&nID=128 60 http://www.oilfund.az/inside_az.php?zid=2&nID=127 59 127 _____________________________________________________ , : , ; , ; ; ; , - ; ; ( ); , . . 2000 . : 2001 , 5 ; 15 . 128 29 _____________________________________________________ 61 . : ; ; ; ; . 1.2 , . , , , . ( , ), , , . 1.4, ( ) , ( . ( 61 7 2003 1 ), 2). 2005 . 129 _____________________________________________________ 4.1, . 4.2, , . ? . , . . 5.5) . , , , . , . . . Ernst & Young. 130 , , . , _____________________________________________________ . . , , , , , . ( 62 , 2006 . . 6 . ). , . , , . , , , ». 62 , ( . . 5.3 . , 5.4), , , , . ( . , ) , , http://www.oilfund.az/index.php?n=20 131 _____________________________________________________ . , , . , , , . , . ., , , . , , ( ). , . . : 19 2001 ; ; ; . 132 _____________________________________________________ « , » » , , . « » , ) , « . : ) , , , , ) ) , . » , , . « , . « » , . , , . 133 _____________________________________________________ , . , . , , 63 . . 5.3. . , , , 14 . « »64. . , 20.7 10 , , . 63 . http://www.oilfund.az/download/az/2001_az.pdf . 43 64 http://www.maliyye.gov.az/law1_2_07_02_en.shtml 134 25.6 , _____________________________________________________ . 27.1 , , , . . . , . , , . 65 : «…4) , . , . “ 65 ” ( ( ) : , - http://edf-syf.org/ 135 _____________________________________________________ 1998 16 a ) 5.4. . , » , ( , « 1.1.5) , , , , , , . , .1.2 , , , . , . . 66 . . 66 http://www.sspf.gov.az/qanuvericilik/qanunlar/0790-2q.htm 136 _____________________________________________________ 5.5. , « » 67 ). , 68 , , ( 69 : ( ). . ; . 2-3 . , , . , 67 http://www.justice.gov.az/leg_az6.html http://www.taxes.gov.az/qanun/index.shtml 69 http://www.taxes.gov.az/eng/qanun/ 68 137 _____________________________________________________ , . ) ( . 5.6. , , » 70 « » : 19 , , . . , , « ». 1998 71 ( 1 2006 30 http://www.ngo-az.org/contents.php?cid=441 http://www.mediarights.az/index.php?lngs=aze&id=129 138 71 . . , , 70 « . 30 2007 2007), , . _____________________________________________________ , , , , , . , . . , . ( 411 125). . , . , 2004 . « », 16 – 139 _____________________________________________________ 6. 6.1. 2003- 17- , ( 1- )72. 73 , . 13- 2003- . 224 , , 74 . , , 72 http://www2.dfid.gov.uk/news/files/eitireportconference17june03.asp http://www2.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/eitidraftreportazerbiajan.pdf 74 http://www.oilfund.az/inside_az.php?nID=24 140 73 , _____________________________________________________ , , , . , , , , , , – . . 6.2. , «Park 2004Hyatt». . , « » 5- 20- . , , 141 _____________________________________________________ , 20- . 2004, 13- . 2004- ) ( . «ISR Plaza» 30, . EITI . , 30 75 » ). , , , « , , , ( »76. – , : , 75 http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/eng/koalisiya/eng_k2.htm http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/eng/koalisiya/eng_k4.htm 142 76 _____________________________________________________ , ; , ; ; « », . : . , , , , , .; . ; 143 _____________________________________________________ . ; . , ; . , ; . . 14- 2004- , 2004- 11- . . 2004- . 14, , , . 11- . : 144 ) 2004DFID . . _____________________________________________________ , ; , ; , , ; , , ; , , , ; , ; 145 _____________________________________________________ ) . ; , . . . , , , , , . , , – , .); 2) : 1) , ( , . , , , 146 , . , , _____________________________________________________ , . « », « , » . , , , . , , . , , . , . .) , ( , , , . 147 _____________________________________________________ , . , , , , , ( ). , , . , , . , ) 148 . , , , , _____________________________________________________ , , , . . , . , , . , ( . 6- 2004 , . ) ), – , : , ( DFID, ), , . . . , , . , 8- 2004149 _____________________________________________________ . , , , DFID, . , 6- 8. . . , : ) 16- 2004- , , ( , , . , . . , 11- , . , 15. 150 , , , 2004- _____________________________________________________ 6.3. 77 24Recensi. 2004- « » , , , , , - Hyatt . , , , , , , . , , , : 1) , ; 2) ; 3) . 77 , , http://www.eiti-az.org/gen/feal/memorandum.pdf 151 _____________________________________________________ , : 15- 15- . . : , 1234567- 78 2003- 79 80 20042004- 81 82 20052005- 83 84 20062006- , - 78 Deloitte & Touche Deloitte & Touche 15.03.2005 15.03.2005 Deloitte & Touche AGN Mak Azerbaijan LTD Deloitte & Touche Deloitte & Touche 03.08.2005 27.01.2006 Moore Stephens 24.08.2007 , 18.08.2006 31.01.2007 . , http://www.oilfund.az/download2/EITI2003.pdf http://www.oilfund.az/download2/EITI2004.pdf 80 http://www.oilfund.az/download2/eng2303.pdf 81 http://www.oilfund.az/download/sofaz_report.pdf 82 http://www.oilfund.az/download2/eiti_report_31122005_en.pdf 83 http://www.oilfund.az/?news=97 84 http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/azl/feal/2007/HK_hesabat_il_2006.htm 152 79 , _____________________________________________________ , . , . . , 1) . . 2005 , . , , , . . . – . . , , . . . , 153 _____________________________________________________ . ( 85 86 . . 87 ( , , ). , . , . , , , . . . . . ( ). . , , 85 , http://www.oilfund.az/ http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/eng/index.htm 87 http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/eng/feal/CoalitionOpinionSept2006.pdf 154 86 ) _____________________________________________________ ( , . , , . . . SHELL, . . . , (BP, 5h). ) 2004 , , (17 , STATOIL). BP Statoil, 2005 2- ) , . . , BP Statoil. , . ). , , , . 155 _____________________________________________________ 11- , , . :« , ». ? . , - . , , , , , , . : ; (Koa ) ; , . 156 , _____________________________________________________ , , , . , . 6.4. , , 1. , : ? 2. ? 3. ? 4. ? 5. 6. , ? , ? 157 _____________________________________________________ 7. ? 8. ? 9. ? 10. ? , . , 1-2% . , , , . . , , , , 1-2 % 2-5 . , 88 , , Caspian oil windfalls: who will benefit? Svetlana Tsalik. Open Society Institute. 2003. 158 88 , _____________________________________________________ . , ? , . , , 22- . BP , Statoil. , 4- . , . , ) ) . , - , . ( , 6-9 5.3). , , , , , . , , . . , . 159 _____________________________________________________ , . , , . , . , , . , ? , , . , . . 6.5. ? 89 89 http://eitransparency.org/eiti/principles 160 , . , _____________________________________________________ , (6- ). , . 2- , , 4- , 10- , 6.4. 161 _____________________________________________________ 7. 4 . : ) , , , , , ) ) , ) , ) , . ) , ) , ) . , . , , , . . 162 , , . _____________________________________________________ . , . – ? , , , , , . , , . , . . . » , ( , 5), , « , , . 163 _____________________________________________________ , ( . . . . « , » , . ) . , , , , », « « », « » , , , 5 , . 4, », , . , 164 , , . , , « , , 5 - , , . . . , . , _____________________________________________________ . : ; ; , , ; . ; ; ; ; . 165 _____________________________________________________ . , ) , , . ( , , . . , ( 4.1). (stakeholders), .), ( , , , . , , . , ( 166 ) , _____________________________________________________ , . , , . . , . . . , , , . . , . , $60/ 20 , $600. . , $1000 40%, 2009 8 USD. , , . . 167 _____________________________________________________ , ) ( . , , . . . , . , . . , , , , , . , , . , , , 168 . , , . _____________________________________________________ , , . . , , , . 4 , . , . . , . , . Think , , , . Tank , Ltd. , . , , 169 _____________________________________________________ . . , . , . Azerbaijan”. : ., . 2005 “Transparency International . , , , , , . , : ; 170 . _____________________________________________________ ; ; ; ; . , , – , , , , . , , . , , , , , .4.2 .), . , , , , USAID, DFID ( . . .4.3, , ) , . 171 _____________________________________________________ . , , , , . , . , , . . : ; . , . 172 . _____________________________________________________ 1. 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Measuring revenue transparency: home government requirements for disclosure in the oil and gas industries. Save the Children. http://www.publishwhatyoupay.org/measuring_transparency/pdf/ho megovts.pdf 8. Caspian oil windfalls: who will benefit? Svetlana Tsalik. Open Society Institute. 2003. 9. Chad’s Oil: Miracle or Mirage? Following the Money in Africa’s Newest Petro-State. Ian Gary. Catholic Relief Services http://www.bicusa.org/Legacy/chad_oil_report.pdf 10. Conditions and practice of oil agreements in Caspian countries. Information – Analitical Agency "TREND". TREND weekly review N 46 (156). 28 November 2003 http://www.pfmc.az/cgiin/cl2_fmc/item.cgi?lang=en&item=20040618213215452 11. Covering Oil Wealth (Materials of a workshop held in Baku on November 19-21, 2003). Baku, 2004. 12. Enabling Civil Society. Practical Aspects of Freedom of Association. Source Book. Public Interest Law Initiative. Columbia University Budapest Law Center. Budapest, Hungary. 2003. 13. Eye On EITI. Civil Society Perspectives and Recommendations on the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. October 2006. P u b l i s h Wh at Yo u Pay | R e v e n u e Wat c h i n s t i t u t e http://www.publishwhatyoupay.org/english/pdf/pubs/eyeoneiti.pdf 174 _____________________________________________________ 14. Gelb, Alan H. and Associates, 1988, Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? (New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank) 15. Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency. June 2005. IMF http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/grrt/eng/060705.pdf 16. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001, “Lessons from the Dutch Disease: Causes, Treatment, and Cures, “Institute of Economic Studies Working Paper No. W01:06 (Reykjavik: University of Iceland) 17. Karl, Terry Lynn, 1999, “The Perils of the Petro-State: Reflections on the Paradox of Plenty”, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 53 (Fall), pp. 31-48 18. Lessons Learned on Oil Revenue Management. Remarks by Mr. Takatoshi Kato, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund. At the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) 2006 High Level Conference, Oslo, Norway, October 17, 2006 http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2006/101706.htm 19. Lifting the Natural Resource Curse. By Thomas I. Palley http://www.publishwhatyoupay.org/english/pdf/pubs/tpalley_fsj.pdf 20. Overview of corruption trends and anti-corruption activities in Azerbaijan in 2003- 2004, June, 2004, by Rena Safaralieva, executive director, Transparency Azerbaijan http://www.alac-az.org/transpfiles/klim1.pdf 21. Overview of the judiciary system in Azerbaijan 2003-3004, by Rena Safaraliva http://www.alac-az.org/transpfiles/klim0.pdf 175 _____________________________________________________ 22. Petroleum, Poverty and Security. Keith Myers, Chatham House http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/africa/BPpetroleum.pdf 23. Pilot Countries Experince. International Conference, Baku, Azerbaijan, April 6-8, 2006. http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/eng/feal/aprilConference_book.pdf 24. Public Finance. Transparency and Efficiency. Bulletin #1. PFMC, Baku, 2003 25. Report of “Azerbaijan against bribery” Media Surveys Group on project “Obligations Azerbaijan took before European Council: Corruption and poverty” implemented by Oil Workers Rights Protection Committee, November 2004 http://www.alac-az.org/transpfiles/klim20.pdf 26. Rivers and Blood: Guns, Oil and Power in Nigeria’s Rivers State. A Human Rights Watch Briefing Paper. February 2005 http://hrw.org/backgrounder/africa/nigeria0205/nigeria0205.pdf 27. The EU's relations with Azerbaijan. Overview. http://ec.europa.eu/comm/external_relations/azerbaidjan/intro/index.htm 28. The Information Bulletin “Extractive Industry Transparency”, #1-7. The bulletin is published by the Azerbaijan NGO Coalition for Improving Transparency in the Extractive Industry. http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/eng/feal/bulletin7_eng.pdf 29. The rough guide to transparency and natural resource revenues. A CAFOD briefing http://www.cafod.org.uk/var/storage/original/application/phpZCx1R9.pdf 176 _____________________________________________________ 30. Three Views of EITI Implementation in Azerbaijan. Eco nomic Re search Cen ter Baku, 2006, p.104 http://www.eiti-az.org/ts_gen/eng/feal/eiti_sorgu_eng.pdf 31. Transparency Begins at Home. An Assessment of United States Revenue Transparency and Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Requirements. Paul Bugala. Oxfam America for Publish What You Pay United States June 2006 http://www.oxfamamerica.org/newsandpublications/publications/briefing_pap ers/briefing_paper.2006-0615.0383390630/Transparency20Begins20at20Home20062106.pdf 1. . 2. . . , , , 2004 3. Watch). 2005. 4. . , . « , 2002 , 2005 , , : , . » (Revenue . . . 177 _____________________________________________________ 5. , . “ ”. . 02 2006. http://www.glazev.ru/alert/6/28 6. . . 26 2006 . http://ej.ru/experts/entry/3114/ 7. 2006. CBS-PP 8. 9. 178 . – . . .« . . , . , 2005. », 4, 2006 _____________________________________________________ 1. (9 (14 : ), (13 ), ), , (17 ), ” , ), 1654 p . , , 35 1872 , , , 13 , ), . . . (13 ), ) (14 (17 ), “ . . (10 (8 , . , 179 _____________________________________________________ . 1848 . p 1870- . . 12 19- , 1884 , . . 1. 1898 1896 1894 1892 1890 1888 18 74 18 76 18 78 18 80 18 82 18 84 18 86 18 88 18 90 18 92 18 94 18 96 18 98 19 00 19 02 1886 1884 1882 1880 82 18 3 32 9 34 3 81 8 1 45 0 1 87 6 2 98 8 3 73 7 4 65 8 4 80 8 6 38 5 8 01 4 9 86 6 10 50 4 1878 1 8 72 1 8 73 1 8 74 1 8 75 1 8 76 1 8 77 1 8 78 1 8 79 1 8 80 1 8 81 1 8 82 1 8 83 1 8 84 1 8 85 1 8 86 1 8 87 1 8 88 1 8 89 1 8 90 1876 26 66 12000 82 10 5 10000 18 3 24 8 328000 9 39 5 346000 3 65 6 81 8 984000 3 1 45 0 1 882000 4 1 87 6 2 32 7 0 2 98 8 3 24 9 3 73 7 1874 .1. 1873 1902 6,2 . 1900 p , . 1874-1902 1901 22.5 . 10.979 . . . 180 , , _____________________________________________________ . p 23.482 1941 1922 p . , . , . 2 . 2915 4 626530 0 0 10521 19340 2 2 127050 0 0 11400 14776 1 5 218540 0 0 17830 21500 2 0 118070 0 0 17000 15000 1 3 1 4520 0 0 12513 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 0 .2 1940 63,2% . . , 1941-1945 p . . 1964 1969 71,5% , . p . p 1968 . 1985 . 1947 21 1963 , 181 _____________________________________________________ 1990- ( 1997- 13 . . 1994 . 1995 . 3. 2005 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 .3 2. " 43 182 ". . 1848 pp 21 . pp . 37 p 43 . ) - _____________________________________________________ , p : , . " 23 ". 1948 , - , . . . 67 37 17 490 . . 1.450 . 92 %, - 28 %. , : - 1130 820 . ; . , – 3 , - 3000 . . 183 _____________________________________________________ 3. : 1) , 2) ; ; 4) 5) ; ; 3) ; 6) ; 7) « ». 4. SWOT A : ( 25 , , , : : , - 184 ) _____________________________________________________ : : ( 25-30 ) , 5. 1994 26 . - . 4074.4 USD. 2000 2005 . .7 . 2005 185 . US D _____________________________________________________ 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 .7 : , , , , , , , , , , , . 186 , , , , , , , , , , , , , . _____________________________________________________ 6. , ( ) 1990 12.5 8.5 1995 9.2 6.6 2000 14.0 6.3 2006 32.3 4.7 0 9.9 16.9 0 6.6 8.1 5.5 5.6 5.5 23.4 6.8 9.6 5.4 13.4 0 0.6 0 0.3 65.5 4.4 ) ( ) ( ) ) ( ( ) ) , , BP : 7. : ( ); British Petroleum (BP) (Statoil, ExxonMobil, TotalFinaElf, Lukoil, Itochu and others), PSA; : ; ; : ( ( ); ); 187 _____________________________________________________ «A (100% » – : ); . . 8. , . 9. , , – , . : 188 , _____________________________________________________ ( ); )– ( )– ( )– ( )– ( ( ); ); . , – – BP (30.1%); AzBTC (25.00%); Chevron (8.90%); Statoil (8.71%); TPAO (6.53%); ENI (5.00%); Total (5.00%), Itochu (3.40%); INPEX (2.50%), ConocoPhillips (2.50%) and Hess (2.36%) – SOCAR, “ – AIOC ” 2006 , . 16 1000 1768 115 1475 145 837 . 2006 189 _____________________________________________________ . 10 ) ( 733 , .90 – 1997 . . . AIOC. – 17 1999 . AIOC. . . 90 , 13 2006. http://www.ia-centr.ru/public_details.php?id=214 190 - _____________________________________________________ , ), , . ( ( ), ( : ( ( ). ( ), ( : ), ( , ( ), ), ), , ( ( ), ), ), ( ), ). : , . . 24 2007 « », . , . , . 191 _____________________________________________________ . , . , , . 38 2010-2011 25 , . . , , , , . . , , : , ( ) , . 2007 , 192 . 300 10 - . 15-20 320 380 , , . _____________________________________________________ , 3 4 . . . . . 2007 4-8 , . , 12-14 , 168 3 1 . , . 91 , – 12-13 , 8)92. . . 2004-2006 . , , (" " . p"), 40 9.4 . ". 91 . , . 2006 , 24.01.07 92 . . http://www.ia-centr.ru/public_details.php?id=140 . 04 2006 193 _____________________________________________________ : Mobilex Energy Ltd. ( Mobilex Europe, )93; – Palmali ( - ). Mobilex Energy Ltd, . 2010 3 Mobilex 10 ,5 Mobilex . . 12 2007 400 . 94 . . Palmali, . Palmali ). ( Palmali 6-8 . . , ( ) ( ) - 93 94 . . http://www.ia-centr.ru/public_details.php?id=140 194 . 04 2006 _____________________________________________________ . — 248 — 20 442 , , — 106,6 . . . , 280 . - . SCP Co., - 25.5%), Total (10%), TPAO (9%). 4 ( : BP – 25.5%), Statoil ( (10%), LUKoil (10%), NICO (10%), (9,1 6,3 , BTC Co.. - 0,5 ( ) ( 0,3 - , ) ). - 1,5 ). - 0,8 95 . , , . - Nabucco. 95 , 06.05.06, Kazakhstan today http://www.gazeta.kz/art.asp?aid=75024 195
